Researchers say average temperatures across the Sahel rose 1 degree Celsius from 1950 to 2010 while average annual rainfall fell 4.1 cm, outpacing global trends. By the 2060s, temperatures are projected to be 1.2 to 3.6 degrees higher.

Severe drought occurred in the 1970s and 1980s in this region. Moving forward, most projections actually predict an increase in rainfall. While this should be good news for farmers that rely on rains to water their crops, it actually may not be: the rains will be different than before, and will come in extreme events, triggering floods, landslides and other disasters. All these climate impacts are happening on top of COVID-19, rapid population growth, protracted violence and insecurity, gender inequality, and pervasive poverty.

Climate change is a risk multiplier – especially for girls, children with disabilities and other marginalized groups. Conflicts over scarce water and land resources are triggering violence, displacing communities and pushing coping mechanisms to the breaking point. And when things break, children and youth are those who suffer the most. One example comes from Nigeria, where recent analysis indicates that climate change is driving recruitment by armed groups.

Change is on the way. Countries across the Central Sahel are mobilizing resources to address climate change as a mechanism to reduce conflict. But climate action is not enough. We must connect the dots with education and other sustainable development endeavours to achieve long-term results.

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